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Creators/Authors contains: "Gamelin, Brandi"

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  1. Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long, narrow regions of water vapor in the Earth's atmosphere that transport heat and moisture from the tropics to the mid‐latitudes. ARs are often associated with extreme weather events in North America and contribute significantly to water supply and flood risk. However, characterizing ARs has been a major challenge due to the lack of a universal definition and their structural variations. Existing AR detection tools (ARDTs) produce distinct AR boundaries for the same event, making the risk assessment of ARs a difficult task. Understanding these uncertainties is crucial to improving the predictability of AR impacts, including their landfall areas and associated precipitation, which could cause catastrophic flooding and landslides over the coastal regions. In this work, we develop an uncertainty visualization framework that captures boundary and interior uncertainties, i.e., structural variations, of an ensemble of ARs that arise from a set of ARDTs. We first provide a statistical overview of the AR boundaries using the contour boxplots of Whitaker et al. that highlight the structural variations of AR boundaries based on their nesting relationships. We then introduce the topological skeletons of ARs based on Morse complexes that characterize the interior variation of an ensemble of ARs. We propose an uncertainty visualization of these topological skeletons, inspired by MetroSets of Jacobson et al. that emphasizes the agreements and disagreements across the ensemble members. Through case studies and expert feedback, we demonstrate that the two approaches complement each other, and together they could facilitate an effective comparative analysis process and provide a more confident outlook on an AR's shape, area, and onshore impact. 
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  2. Sundowner winds are downslope gusty winds often observed on the southern slopes of the Santa Ynez Mountains (SYM) in coastal Santa Barbara (SB), California. They typically peak near sunset and exhibit characteristics of downslope windstorms through the evening. They are SB’s most critical fire weather in all seasons and represent a major hazard for aviation. The Sundowner Winds Experiment Pilot Study was designed to evaluate vertical profiles of winds, temperature, humidity, and stability leeward of the SYM during a Sundowner event. This was accomplished by launching 3-hourly radiosondes during a significant Sundowner event on 28–29 April 2018. This study showed that winds in the lee of the SYM exhibit complex spatial and temporal patterns. Vertical profiles showed a transition from humid onshore winds from morning to midafternoon to very pronounced offshore winds during the evening after sunset. These winds accompanied mountain waves and a northerly nocturnal lee jet with variable temporal behavior. Around sunset, the jet was characterized by strong wind speeds enhanced by mountain-wave breaking. Winds weakened considerably at 2300 PDT 29 April but enhanced dramatically at 0200 PDT 29 April at much lower elevations. These transitions were accompanied by changes in stability profiles and in the Richardson number. A simulation with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at 1-km grid spacing was examined to evaluate the skill of the model in capturing the observed winds and stability profiles and to assess mesoscale processes associated with this event. These results advanced understanding on Sundowner’s spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms. 
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